Polls vs. Reality: Why AP and Coaches Got It Wrong

An Argumentative Blog on College Football Week 4 Recap

 By Ovi Muniz Inspired by Bill Connelly's ESPN Week 4 Recap

Every September, the same debate resurfaces in college football: Are the polls a reflection of actual performance, or simply preseason reputation? After four weeks of the 2025 season, the answer is clear — once again, the AP and Coaches polls have leaned too heavily on brand names and not enough on on-field results. Bill Connelly's Week 4 recap on ESPN highlights just how drastically the reality has shifted from those preseason expectations.

The Notre Dame and Clemson Mirage

The most glaring missteps? Notre Dame and Clemson.
Both were handed comfortable preseason poll positions, bolstered by past glory and name recognition. But as Connelly's recap shows, neither has looked like a legitimate contender. Notre Dame's title odds have already plummeted by nearly five percentage points, while Clemson has drifted into irrelevance in the Playoff Predictor. The polls propped them up early, but the product on the field has not matched the hype. In reality, these teams were given a benefit of the doubt that others had to earn.

The Ignored Contenders: Indiana, Miami, Oregon

Meanwhile, teams that actually deserve recognition have been forced to claw their way up. Indiana's demolition of Illinois, Oregon's defensive dominance, and Miami's consistent start prove that these programs are not flukes. Oregon has surged to a 12.3% title chance — the highest in the country — yet the polls lagged in reflecting their strength until the numbers made it undeniable. Indiana's odds skyrocketed from nowhere to 7.5%, but voters still hesitate to embrace the Hoosiers. Miami is another case: steadily improving, but only begrudgingly rewarded by pollsters.

The reality is this: 3-0 is 3-0, and those wins matter more than logo power. These teams should not have to wait until midseason to be legitimized.

Penn State's Empty Schedule

Then there's Penn State, a classic case of reputation over results. The Lions were handed lofty preseason spots despite playing a schedule that has not tested them. Connelly notes they've already dropped in Playoff odds (-5.7%), a sign that analytics see through the smoke and mirrors. Yet AP and Coaches voters continue to inflate their standing. Beating up on overmatched opponents tells us nothing about whether Penn State can actually contend in November.

The Problem With Preseason Bias

This is the flaw of the polling system: too much weight is given to past success and "blue blood" status. When Texas, Notre Dame, Clemson, and Penn State start high, they only fall after repeated stumbles. Meanwhile, teams like Oregon, Indiana, and Miami have to start from scratch, proving themselves week after week while voters slowly, grudgingly come around.

Connelly's Week 4 analysis is blunt — no team is separating from the pack right now. That should mean a level playing field. Instead, perception still tilts toward programs with the biggest fanbases and TV ratings.

Final Thought

If the first month of 2025 has proven anything, it's that the AP and Coaches polls are behind the curve. Notre Dame and Clemson should never have been penciled in as contenders. Penn State's untested schedule should not guarantee poll security. And programs like Indiana, Miami, and Oregon should not have to beg for recognition after proving it on the field.

The beauty of college football lies in unpredictability — but if the polls refuse to adapt, they'll keep protecting reputations at the expense of reality.