By Ovi Muniz, All 4 Downs

The 2025 College Football Playoff field is officially set, and as always, Bill Connelly's signature "IFs" remind us that championships aren't just won by talent — they're won by timing, matchups, health, momentum, and pure chaos. But while Connelly focuses on what each contender needs to win a national title, this year's bracket includes controversy that the numbers alone don't fully capture.

Before we get into championship paths, we must address what many fans (and analysts) are feeling right now: this bracket is messy, inconsistent, and in some ways misleading.

📉 Notre Dame vs. Miami — A Ranking That Never Made Sense

One of the biggest issues this season was the CFP Committee's decision to rank Notre Dame over Miami for most of the year despite:

• Miami owning the head-to-head win

• Notre Dame lacking a strong late-season win

• No conference title game to boost résumé

Notre Dame sat inside the top 10 at one point — as high as #9 — until the media, particularly ESPN analysts, publicly questioned the ranking. Suddenly the committee "corrected" itself, moving Miami above Notre Dame at the last moment and ultimately leaving the Irish out of the playoff.

This swing makes the rankings feel reactive instead of consistent.
If Miami's head-to-head mattered in Week 13, why didn't it matter in Week 10? Week 11? Week 12?

The result:
Notre Dame falls, Miami rises, and the Irish miss the CFP entirely.

🅰️ Alabama — The First 3-Loss Team to Ever Make the CFP

Another major storyline:
Alabama makes history by becoming the first 3-loss team to enter the playoff.

On paper, it's shocking — but in reality, it makes more sense than people want to admit.

Why?

• Alabama's résumé is better than Notre Dame's

• Their strength of schedule was brutal

• They earned quality wins

• Metrics loved them: efficiency, game control, power rankings

Did Alabama struggle?
Absolutely. They didn't score a single point against Georgia in the SEC Championship until the fourth quarter. But résumé vs. record is what the committee claims to prioritize, and this year that principle held — just selectively.

And if there were room for an outside-the-box choice?
Vanderbilt had an argument.
Their overall performance and wins should've earned more respect, and in a perfect bracket, Miami might have been the team to drop.

But the committee wasn't going to leave the ACC without a representative.

So Miami gets in.
Notre Dame pays the price.
And Alabama slides into the field on strength of schedule alone.

🏆 The Top Four: No Surprises — Except Where They Should Be Ranked

The top four teams came out exactly as predicted, but there's still debate over the order.

The committee placed them as:

1. Indiana

2. Ohio State

3. Georgia

4. Texas Tech

But if we're being honest?

I would've placed Ohio State at No. 4.

Their late-season loss, coupled with Indiana's perfect record and Georgia's SEC dominance, makes the Buckeyes feel slightly overrated at No. 2. They're absolutely playoff-worthy, but the seeding doesn't reflect momentum or strength of schedule as accurately as it could.

📊 Bill Connelly's "IFs" — And Who Can Actually Win the National Title

Connelly's annual analysis focuses on what each team needs to hoist the trophy. Every contender has a path if they execute perfectly.

But the betting markets already tell the story:

• Ohio State: +250 (Favorite)

• Indiana: +260 (Undefeated but slightly behind OSU)

• Georgia: +550 (SEC power, elite roster, tough path)

These three are the clear frontrunners.

Yet — and this is a huge yet — last season taught us something important:

No team with a first-round bye won its quarterfinal game.

That's right.
The "rest advantage" didn't matter. If anything, it created rust while the lower-seeded teams gained rhythm and confidence.

So while Ohio State, Indiana, and Georgia are the statistical favorites… history suggests that the middle-seeded teams may actually have the better path.

Texas Tech.
Ole Miss.
Texas A&M.
Even Alabama — yes, the three-loss Alabama — has a legitimate chance if they play mistake-free football.

This bracket is wide open.

🔮 Final Thought: Expect Chaos

Between Notre Dame being dropped at the last second, Miami being pushed upward by need rather than logic, Alabama sneaking in with three losses, and the top-four seeding raising questions — this is one of the most unpredictable Playoff fields ever.

Bill Connelly's message holds true:
Championships are won by teams who get hot, stay healthy, and avoid the wrong matchup.

The numbers say Ohio State, Indiana, and Georgia are favorites.
History says:
Don't trust the bye. Don't trust the seed. Trust the chaos.

And chaos is exactly what makes college football beautiful.